CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2018-02-12T01:25:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2018-02-12T01:25Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/13660/-1
CME Note: This partial halo CME is associated with a long duration C1.5 flare peaking at 1:35Z from AR2699.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2018-02-15T07:38Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2018-02-15T02:18Z
Prediction Method: CAT-PUMA
Prediction Method Note:

Input:

CME Parameters from SOHO LASCO C2 & C3:
Onset time: 2018-02-12T01:25:00
Angular width: 266.6
Average speed: 688.5 km/s
Final speed: 654.8 km/s
Mass: 3.94e15 g
MPA: 262.8

Solar Wind Parameters from DSCOVR Spacecraft:
Bz: -1.22 nT
Alpha-Proton Ratio: 0.041  # No observation, use average value in the model
Flow Speed: 314.5 km/s
Flow Latitude: -1.86
Pressure: 0.974 nPa
Flow Longitude: 2.19
Bx: 1.038 nT
Temperature: 15624.54 K

Lead Time: 43.47 hour(s)
Difference: 5.33 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Jiajia Liu (QUB) on 2018-02-13T12:10Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy